Blinken, Yellen and Kerry -- China-U.S. high-level dialogues reopen amid uncertainty of what to expect of them

It remains to be seen what substantial breakthrough these meetings will usher in for the most important bilateral relations in the world.

In less than a month, three high-level U.S. officials paid visits to China -- Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry. A series of meetings with Chinese top leadership and their counterparts took place, and all eyes are now on their bearings on China-U.S. relations.

All three officials pledged keeping lines of communication open between the two largest economies in the world. Yellen’s visit in particular produced positive rhetoric aimed at allaying some pressing concerns, analysts noted. But so far, it remains to be seen what substantial breakthrough these meetings will usher in for the most important bilateral relations in the world.

Why did they garner so much attention?

The visits occurred at the lowest point of China-U.S. relationship since its establishment. They are therefore seen as moves aimed at easing China-U.S. political tensions.

The causes of tension cover a sizable range of areas -- national security, treatment of foreign companies, trade and investment policies, and geopolitical issues. The United States has yet to drop all Trump-Administration additional tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, and a set of restrictions on investment in China could be in the pipeline.

The anti-China rhetoric took another turn at the G7 Summit in May when the leaders agreed on an approach to “derisk” their relationship with China. The new term, a seemingly softer one compared to “decouple”, represents an attempt to appease begrudging U.S. allies and companies without making any actual policy shifts.

Despite U.S. efforts to pressure Japan and the Netherlands to impose restrictions on technology exports to China, analysts from both sides noted that pushback from many countries and the U.S. business community have made headlong estrangement impossible. French President Emmanuel Macron said the European Union and China should work together to avoid "decoupling and breaking the chain.” European Union officials have also objected to “choosing sides.”

There is also the larger backdrop of global economic recovery. Many expect China to be the main engine of global economic expansion this year by contributing as much as 36 percent of annual growth. China's GDP expanded 5.5 percent in the first half of this year, the fastest among all major economies. Walking away from the tangible benefits of business ties with China doesn't make sense to the United States or the rest of the world.

"What the United States and China do -- both in the bilateral sphere as well as on the broader global stage -- shapes the lives and livelihoods of the people in our countries and beyond," Yellen told a press conference after the trip.

The China-U.S. relationship is simply too important to be dealt with by cold shoulders.

What messages did they send?

Analysts believe the visits are steps in the right direction in that they send a message of more upcoming dialogues to responsibly manage probably the most consequential bilateral relations in the world.

“We believe it is possible to achieve an economic relationship that is mutually beneficial in the long term – one that supports growth and innovation on both sides,” said Yellen in an uplifting note to market observers.

Yellen in particular stressed her efforts to communicate with Chinese economic policy makers. During her talks that totaled 10 hours with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Vice Premier He Lifeng, Minister of Finance Liu Kun and Party Chief of the People's Bank of China Pan Gongsheng, she sought to play down the implications of "derisking" by emphasizing the "transparency" and "narrow scope" of national security actions and their "targeted clear objectives."

Yellen pointed out that the United States does not seek to decouple from China as it would be disastrous for both countries and create instability globally. "The world is big enough for both of our countries to thrive," she said at the end of her visit.

U.S. entrepreneurs in China applauded Blinken and Yellen's visits on top of a recent burst of China trips made by global business leaders like Apple CEO Tim Cook and Tesla founder Elon Musk. Business representatives hope they could pave the way for visits from more senior government officials.

The willingness for more bilateral dialogues evident in the trips appears to some U.S. analysts as a significant development, with both countries at least "talking about their disagreements after months of silence," reported the New York Times.

Chinese analysts say the visits brought a "friendly air" to bilateral ties, which could dissipate if it is not followed by substantial breakthroughs on issues of common concern.

Where did the visits leave China-U.S. relations?

U.S. and Chinese analysts share caution against expecting immediate and meaningful easing of tensions after the visits, as neither side appeared to have budged on major contentions.

China urges the U.S. side to lift additional tariffs on Chinese products, stop the suppression of Chinese enterprises, treat two-way investments fairly, relax U.S. export controls on China, and lift the ban on imports of all products related to Xinjiang, said a read-out from the Ministry of Finance of exchanges with Yellen during her visit.

In response, Yellen said that the United States is willing to listen to China's concerns, does not seek to decouple from China, and has no intention of hindering China's modernization process.

A deeper problem lies in the "underlying dynamic and trajectory of the economic relationship" between the two countries, which is unlikely to change because of Yellen's trip, according to a former U.S. Treasury official quoted by the New York Times and Bloomberg.

An SCMP editorial expounded on the dynamic by listing a few acting factors -- the Biden administration's protectionist approach to economics, the freezing U.S. public sentiment towards China and the U.S. intention to exert geopolitical influence through economic strategies.

U.S. President Joe Biden's hopes of getting reelected in 2024 could make it more difficult for him to soften stance on China, analysts from both countries noted. Chinese analysts also pointed to a track record of "mercurial" and "doubled-faced" U.S. treatment on China-related issues.

The Kerry visit, amid scorching heatwaves across the world as a possible result of climate change, is expected to pick up where both sides left off on climate talks. The U.S. side is pushing for progress ahead of the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in December.

Kerry told reporters at a press conference on Wednesday that he and his team had "extremely warm and productive meetings" with senior Chinese officials, but more work is needed this year to reach agreements on certain climate issues. Analysts say China-U.S. climate talks are steps towards a detente between the two countries.

If high-level dialogues can produce breakthroughs, analysts say, chances of reaching more common ground will increase for potential meetings between the two heads of state at major international events later this year, including the G20 Summit and the annual APEC Economic Leaders' Meetings.