China's head-on approach to its shrinking population
China's official data showed a dip in population in 2022, the first time in six decades. Will it weigh on China's economy? How does China view the decline, and how will it respond?
China has held the status as the world's most populous country for centuries, but recent estimates have indicated an imminent change.
A UN report released in April said that China's population would soon be surpassed by that of India, which was expected to reach 1,425,775,850 by the end of the month.
The projection echoed data from China's National Bureau of Statistics -- the country's population totaled 1.412 billion in 2022, falling by 850,000 from a year earlier. This was the first time China registered a population decline since the 1960s.
Keeping a wary eye on the demographic change, Chinese policymakers, at a high-profile meeting in early May, warned of a "trend of birthrate decline, population aging and differentiation in regional population growth" that characterizes the status quo of the country's population.
They stressed the importance of perfecting the strategy for population development in the new era, and the necessity to understand, adapt to and guide the new normal of population development.
They said that the Chinese modernization will be advanced with support from the high-quality development of the population.
TO-DO LIST
To improve the overall quality of the population, the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs (CCFEA) has made a series of arrangements ranging from maintaining an appropriate birthrate and population size to deepening the reform and innovation of education and health services.
The following is a highlight of the key tasks:
Comprehensively improve the scientific and cultural literacy, health, and intellectual and moral level of the population;
Introduce and improve policies to support childbirth;
Develop a childcare service system that can benefit all so as to alleviate the burden of raising children on households;
Build a society friendly to childbirth and child care to promote steady population growth in the long run;
Develop and make good use of human resources, stabilize labor participation rate, and bolster the efficient use of human resources;
Implement proactive national strategies in response to the population aging;
Promote the building of a basic system for elderly care services;
Develop silver economy, and accelerate the building of a multi-layered, multi-pillared elderly care insurance system to make sure that the seniors have a sense of security, worthiness and happiness;
Well coordinate the relationship between population and economy and society as well as that between population and resources and environment;
Improve regional economic layout and territorial spatial system, optimize the population structure, and safeguard the population security;
EXPERTS' VIEW:
INEIVTABLE OUTCOME
Challenging as it may seem, the demographic changes stay predictable and controllable for some sanguine observers. He Dan, director of China Population and Development Research Center, said in recent interview that the shrinking and aging population is an "inevitable outcome" in the process of China's social and economic development.
Despite the fall in population, China still has a vast reserve of rural labors that are flowing from agriculture to other sectors. Official data shows that workforce engaged in agriculture accounts for 23 percent of the total, compared with 3 percent among developed economies.
"This is enormous manpower potential waiting to be tapped," said Cai Fang, chief analyst with China Academy of Social Sciences. Cai urged efforts to further ease restrictions on urban household registration to facilitate the flows of human resources.
When losing the upper hand in the quantity of population, it is particularly important for China to step up investment in education, so as to improve the quality of population and transform demographic dividends into talent dividends.
—— Cai Fang, chief analyst with China Academy of Social Sciences
QUALITY MATTERS MORE
Amid efforts to boost the "high-quality population development," China has put education high on its agenda to produce more adept and knowledge-intensive workers.
The CCFEA meeting decided that the country would regard the "construction of an education power" as a strategic project for high-quality population development, and comprehensively improve the scientific and cultural literacy, health, and intellectual and moral level of the population.
Through decades of efforts, China has established the largest education system in the world, which spans from preschool education to higher education.
The average duration for education among the country's newly-added workers has reached 14 years, with the total number of workers engaged in research and development remaining top of the world, official data shows.
Thanks to the expanded talent pool, China moved up to the 11th spot in the Global Innovation Index 2022 released by the World Intellectual Property Organization, marking an impressive climb of 23 places from its 2012 ranking.
While nurturing more high-end talent, China has sought to guarantee basic schooling for everyone. Last year, the ratio of enrollment to graduation at compulsory education level reached 95.5 percent, while the enrollment rate of high schools stood at 91.6 percent.
"The country is making it a reality that every child shares equal opportunities for high-quality education," said He while commenting on the country's development of basic education.
"This helps transform China from a populous country into one with high-quality human resources," He added.
LESS BURDEN, MORE VITALITY
Some experts are concerned that the shrinking and aging population may bite on China's economy on the demand side, with risks of a consumption slowdown lingering.
To cope with the situation, Cai said that it is necessary that the government improve public services regarding birth, childcare and elderly care to reduce consumers' burdens in these aspects.
Cai said that in an aging society with a growing number of senior citizens that he described as "inactive consumers," the government should pay special attention to alleviating their elderly care pressure to rekindle their consumer demand.
The CCFEA meeting stressed that the country, while building a system for elderly care services, should develop the silver economy and accelerate the building of a multi-layered, multi-pillared elderly care insurance system to ensure that the seniors have a sense of security, worthiness and happiness.
To date, over 400 cities nationwide have created plans to help local residents cope with difficulties concerning elderly care. A case in point is Beijing, where a government-initiated hospital-neighborhood-home cooperation mechanism ensures that senior citizens receive timely healthcare services regardless of their whereabouts.
Hu Zushuan, researcher with the State Information Center, said that China's high-quality population development should progress in combination with the improvement in the quality of life. "In this way can the people gain a greater sense of worthiness and happiness, and the country achieve a beneficial interaction between its population and economy," he said.